What next for Myanmar’s quest for legitimacy? And where does that leave ASEAN?

Myanmar’s former military chief-turned President Min Aung Hlaing has already visited five countries since he took on his new role in April, two of which are ASEAN member states, Laos and Thailand. Soon he’s expected to visit more ASEAN neighbours, such as Cambodia and likely Vietnam. This circumvents a ban that the 11-member ASEAN grouping put on him since the 2021 coup and violent crackdown that spurred a civil war that has raged ever since.

Thailand has taken the first step and offered itself as a “bridge” by conducting its “calibrated re-engagement” to keep an open communication channel with Myanmar, ensuring Naypyitaw remains tethered to the regional bloc. But the aerial bombings and ground clashes with resistance forces continue on multiple fronts. ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus has been rejected by Min Aung Hlaing and the military-dominated parliament.

Five years on, how concerned is Min Aung Hlaing about the current ban on him participating in ASEAN talks? What leverage does ASEAN still have on Myanmar? Will we see a change in ASEAN’s dealings with Myanmar before the end of this year? And what can we expect when Singapore takes over as ASEAN chair next year in dealing with the Myanmar crisis? How will the protracted conflict continue to divide and destabilise Southeast Asia?

Speakers:

Kavi Chongkittavorn is currently a senior fellow at Chulalongkorn University’s Institute of Security and International Studies. He is a veteran journalist who has covered Thai and regional politics for more than three decades for The Nation. He also served as Special Assistant to the Secretary General of ASEAN, editor-in-chief and executive director of Myanmar Times, after terms as the paper’s bureau chief in Phnom Penh and Hanoi. He was a Reuters Fellow at Oxford University, a Nieman Fellow at Harvard and an Asia Studies Fellow at the East-West Center in Washington DC. He now he writes a weekly column, “ThaI Pivot”, for The Bangkok Post.

Debbie Stothard is the founder and coordinator of ALTSEAN Burma, a non-government organisation focused on issues such as human rights, atrocity prevention and promoting democracy. She served as secretary-general of FIDH - the International Federation for Human Rights (2013-2019). She is the chair of ESCR-Net (International Network for Economic, Social and Cultural Rights), and a board member of the global feminist organization AWID. She also chairs the International Campaign for Rohingya and Innovation for Change. Debbie is also a long-time follower of events in Myanmar.

Dr Lalita Hanwong is an Assistant Professor in the History Department at Kasetsart University in Bangkok. Her areas of academic interest include modern and contemporary history of Southeast Asia, with special emphasis on Myanmar. Dr Lalita also writes a column, Thai Phob Phama (Thailand Meets Myanmar) for Matichon newspaper and wrote a book titled ‘Hidden Myanmar’ that examines its contemporary political history through a foreign policy perspective, to grasp the root causes of problems that persist today. She has been a member of government committees on national security, border affairs, national strategy and national reform. She remains an advisor on parliamentary committees and is also a member of The Border Consortium that oversees aid to refugees in the border camps.

‘Anonymous’ is a Myanmar scholar based in Asia whose research areas include Myanmar and Asia-Pacific studies, Myanmar foreign policy, Myanmar-China and Myanmar-Russia relations and Myanmar migrant issues in Thailand. The scholar will join us via Zoom and will remain unidentified to allow him to share frank insights without compromising his safety.

Moderator: May Wong is the Indochina bureau chief for The Straits Times. She’s an FCCT board member and has been a journalist for almost 30 years, covering Myanmar, Thailand and the region for almost 15 years. She conducted one-on-one interviews with both Aung Sun San Suu Kyi and ex-military chief Min Aung Hlaing when she was stationed in Myanmar.

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